Hurricane Maximum Potential Intensity Model

Abstract

A radial pressure profile was incorporated into the HuMPI (Hurricane Maximum Potential Intensity) model that guarantees a direct physical relationship between the calculation of the minimum central pressure and the maximum potential wind speed. The simulations carried out for Hurricanes Matthew and María show that the intensity reached by these systems was approximately 92% of the maximum potential intensity, while the intensification of Hurricane Michael very close to the southern coast of the United States, reaching an intensity slightly higher than the IMP, evidenced the uncertainties in the knowledge of the physical mechanisms that control the intensification and weakening processes of tropical cyclones. On the other hand, it was observed that the area in which the case studies reached the maximum intensity coincided with the areas estimated by the model and the regions with the highest sea surface temperature through which the system moved. In general, the results obtained demonstrate the physical consistency of the model to correctly calculate the maximum potential intensity of hurricanes